Corporate America has consistently beaten expectations this year. S&P 500 earnings have outpaced analyst forecasts in every quarter since the start of 2024, and profit margins have improved as 2026 has progressed. In the second quarter, earnings grew more than +50%, over twice what analysts had forecast. Even excluding one-time gains on private investment stakes (known as “other income”), earnings rose roughly +33%.

The third quarter should be another strong one. Consensus expects revenue to rise +12% and earnings nearly +30%, which would mark the third consecutive quarter of double-digit sales gains and earnings growth above +25%. A few early reports have already set a positive tone, particularly in semiconductors. Micron, for example, reported a year-over-year earnings increase of more than +1,000% in September, beat estimates, and raised its outlook.

Just as important is what investors have paid for those earnings. Earnings per share have climbed steadily while the market’s valuation multiple has fallen. At about 19x forward earnings, the S&P 500 now trades in line with its 10-year average, a more reasonable price for a market growing earnings this quickly.

That said, a few things beneath the surface deserve attention. The most notable is how concentrated growth has become. AI infrastructure companies are expected to drive more than half of S&P 500 earnings growth in the third quarter, and Micron and NVIDIA alone account for more than one-third. For the median company, earnings growth remains healthy but is expected to slow from +14% in the second quarter to +9% in the third. Returns have been similarly narrow; the index sits within a few percent of its all-time high, while the median stock is more than 15% below its own. Furthermore, some of the recent earnings boost is temporary. Mega-cap technology companies booked roughly $150 billion of accounting gains on private investment stakes in the second quarter, equal to more than 10% of S&P 500 earnings, and those gains should fade. Lastly, semiconductor margins, now at multi-decade highs, could come down somewhat if demand moderates or inventories build. We see these as reasons to stay diversified, not to step away from markets.

Looking ahead, we expect growth to moderate some from today’s exceptional pace. Consensus calls for +32% earnings growth in 2026 and +15% in 2027. That slowdown largely reflects tougher comparisons and fading one-time gains; otherwise, the underlying fundamentals remain sound. A solid economy and a potential handoff from AI spending to AI-driven productivity could continue to support profits. We expect earnings to remain the market’s primary driver, as they have been this year.

S&P 500 Earnings and P/E Multiples
S&P 500 Earnings Growth vs Analyst Expectations
S&P 500 Quarterly Net Profit Margin

Endnotes

1 Sourced from FactSet and Bloomberg.

2 FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. S&P 500 quarterly year-over-year earnings growth reflects reported results for completed quarters and consensus estimates for future quarters. “Other income” includes non-operating gains, including certain gains on private investment holdings. Estimated results are subject to revision.

3 Data sourced from FactSet.